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Title: Порівняльний регресійний аналіз кількості сільськогосподарських тварин і птиці в Україні та Білорусі за період 1990–2016 років
Other Titles: Comparative regression analysis of the number livestock and poultry in Ukraine and Belarus for the period of 1990-2016
Authors: Непочатенко, Андрій Вікторович
Nepochatenko, Andriy
Непочатенко, Віктор Андрійович
Nepochatenko, Viktor
Keywords: логістична регресія;прогнозування;тваринництво;logistic regression;curvilinear regression;forecasting;livestock;dynamics of livestock
Issue Date: 2017
Publisher: Білоцерківський НАУ
Citation: Непочатенко А.В. Порівняльний регресійний аналіз кількості сільськогосподарських тварин і птиці в Україні та Білорусі за період 1990–2016 років / А.В. Непочатенко, В.А. Непочатенко // Економіка та управління АПК: зб-к наукових праць. - Біла Церква: БНАУ, 2017. - Вип. 2 (137). - С. 167-177.
Abstract: У статті проведено аналіз нелінійних регресій, на основі яких зроблено прогноз економічних показників часового ряду в кризовий період. Регресивні функції отримані за вирішення відповідних диференціальних рівнянь. Показано, на прикладі зміни чисельності поголів'я тварин в Україні та Білорусії за період 1990-2016 рр., що їм можуть відповідати експоненціальна, логістична регресії або їх модифікації. Зроблено прогноз кількості сільськогосподарських тварин і птиці на 2020 рік.
Description: The paper analyzes possible curvilinear regressions, which correspond to the reduction of the number of animals during the crisis period and increase their number when one exit the crisis. From the obtained differential equations, it is shown that during the crisis period, when there is not enough resources in agricultural enterprises for the extended reproduction of the dynamics of the population, the exponential, logistic regression and their modifications may correspond. Exit from a crisis situation is possible with significant increase of investments. During this period, the dynamics of the stock may correspond to logistic regression or modification. An analysis of the dynamics of the number of cows, pigs, sheep, goats and poultry in Ukraine and Belarus during the period of 1990-2016 was made. It has been shown that in Ukraine, starting in 1991, when a change of ownership took place in the course of the collapse of the Soviet Union, there was a crisis in animal husbandry. This crisis continues at present, with the exception of poultry farming. The number of poultry has started to increase since 1998, which is explained by significant volumes of state financing of this branch of livestock, especially large poultry farms. It was found that the dynamics of the number of cows and pigs corresponded to the modified exponential regression. The dynamics of sheep and goats corresponded to the logistic regression of Pearl-Reed. From 1991 to 1997, the number of birds decreased by exponential law, and since 1998, increased in accordance with the logistic regression of Pearl-Reed. According to the received regressions, it is forecasted that in 2020 in Ukraine there will be 1.823 million head of cows, 1.407 million head of sheep and goats, and 322.17 million head of cattle. In Belarus there was another trend. From 1991 to 2003, the number of pigs decreased, and since 2004 increased. Similarly, the number of cows, together with sheep and goats, declined in line with 2009 and 2005, then increased. Beginning in 1995, the number of birds has increased steadily. The dynamics of the reduction and increase in the number of cows, pigs, sheep, goats, and poultry in Belarus corresponded to the modified logistic regressions of Pearl-Reed. The Belarusian experience confirms that in order to start the outbreak of the livestock sector from a crisis, it is necessary to increase the volume of investments in the fixed capital of the industry at least – 6 times. This output will be gradual, since the resulting increasing regressions are symmetric decreasing. At the same time, in Ukraine, it is necessary to raise the level of procurement prices for milk and meat, increase the volume of state subsidies to agricultural producers. This will restore the volume of agricultural production, will create favorable conditions for the launch of the modernization process on a modern basis, which in turn will contribute to increasing the efficiency of production and competitiveness of national agrarian commodity producers both in the domestic and world markets.
ISSN: 2310-9262
metadata.dc.identifier.udc: 519.22/25.636.1/5(476/477)” 1990/2016
Appears in Collections:Наукові публікації

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