Scenarios for increasing the economic efficiency of dairy enterprises in the food market of Ukraine

Abstract

Substantiation of the strategy of increase of economic efficiency and development of effective evolution directions for dairy enterprises is crucial for fundamental improvement of their functioning, an increase of production volumes of high-quality dairy products, and strengthening of export potential of the dairy industry in general. In the current conditions of economic instability and macroeconomic challenges, new ways of successful transformation of existing business processes need to be sought. The article is devoted to researching modern realities and opportunities and forecasting scenarios for improving the efficiency of milk processing enterprises in Ukraine. In the course of the research were used the information base of the State Statistics Service, information and analytical materials of the National Research Center Institute of Agrarian Economics on indicators of milk production. The study of modern trends in the functioning of enterprises in the dairy industry of Ukraine to substantiate prospective scenarios to increase their efficiency and profitability was carried out using the monographic method. A comparison of the actual and forecasted indicators of milk production volumes in agricultural enterprises and households and the purchase of milk by dairies, taking into account its quality, was carried out based on collected statistical and forecasted data by the method of comparative analysis. The determination of the forecast indicators of raw material production to ensure the improvement of efficiency of dairies was carried out using the calculation-constructive method. To determine the forecast indicators of the development of the dairy industry raw materials base and substantiation of perspective parameters of purchase of dairy raw materials by processing enterprises of Ukraine till 2025, the method of extrapolation of the trend was used. The priority direction of the development of agricultural producers and households specializing in milk production is the need to improve its quality. It is estimated that with 100% sale of high-quality milk by agricultural enterprises to dairies, their net annual income will increase by EUR 175 million. The achievement by households of the population of selling milk to milk processing plants in the ratio of the highest and the first grade of 50 : 50, or 1836.8 and 1836.8 thousand tons, respectively, will contribute to the growth of their net income to EUR 988 million per year. Under the conditions of increasing the share of milk sales by households to 30% of the total milk production, milk processing enterprises will additionally receive almost 1.1 million tons of raw materials, a 50% increase will result in 2.2 million tons, and a 70% increase will result in 3.2 million tons. A gradual increase in volume of raw milk purchases by processing enterprises during 2023-2025 will ensure an increase in utilization level of the production capacities of dairies by 41.1, 75.6, and 107.5%, respectively. The justification of predictive parameters of development of the dairy industry of Ukraine differentiated in terms of producers of raw material base and production potential of milk processing enterprises makes it possible to determine reserves for maximizing its overall economic efficiency, which reflects the differences between the actual productions volumes and potential (forecasted) indicators. Regarding the practical implementation of directions for increasing efficiency of agricultural enterprises and households, aimed at improving the quality and increasing the volume of production, the strategic directions of development of milk processing enterprises will focus on ensuring full import substitution of dairy raw materials and increasing the utilization of their production capacities.